CGF corrects discussion of its No on E position

(Palo Alto Weekly published this letter from CGF correcting the discussion of the No on E position taken by CGF's Board of Directors.  Where the last line says "Committee for Green Foothills Board of Directors", the Weekly failed to include the words from the letter that started with "On behalf of Committee for Green Foothills Board of Directors".  -Brian)

Editor,

It's unfortunate that the Palo Alto Weekly failed to consult with Committee for Green Foothills before incorrectly characterizing the CGF Board's position, among others, as stating that "parkland should never be repurposed." The CGF Board's statement and supporting material specifically recognizes the need to balance competing environmental interests and makes clear that it examines the issues on a case-by-case basis. In this case, the majority of greenhouse-gas emission reductions that would be done at a loss of parklands can instead be done by a smaller operation at the Water Quality Control Plant with no loss of parkland that has been promised to voters for forty years. Committee for Green Foothills' Board did not make a knee-jerk decision but rather a thoughtful one to support both action to fight climate change and to protect our local parkland and natural open space, by encouraging a no vote on Measure E.

Brian Schmidt

Committee for Green Foothills Board of Directors  (CGF note:  Weekly failed to include the words "on behalf of" here)

East Bayshore Road

Palo Alto

Committee for Green Foothills Urges Palo Alto to Vote No on Measure E, has a better plan for climate change and open space

Statement of the CGF's Board of Directors:

Committee for Green Foothills Board of Directors urges a no vote on Palo Alto’s Measure E.

The Board of Directors of the Committee for Green Foothills (CGF) recognizes that its mission of protecting the open space and natural resources in San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties may on occasion require balancing competing valid environmental interests. In the case of Measure E in Palo Alto, we find that the un-dedication of parkland for potential gains on greenhouse gas emissions, based in part on unproven composting techniques, and with no guaranty provided that the loss of the open space would be mitigated by other open space, or that a dedicated funding source for restoration of Byxbee Park would be created, is not a trade-off that the Board believes is consistent with its mission. We support replacing the sewage treatment plant incinerator with a composting operation at the RWQCP because this would reduce the vast majority of greenhouse gas emissions promised by Measure E proponents, without unnecessarily compromising open space. Therefore, CGF goes on record opposing Measure E. 





UPDATE:  CGF also emailed this explanatory statement to Measure E advocates and opponents:

CGF's Board of Directors thanks the supporters and opponents of Measure E for the information and assistance in developing its opinion, and acknowledges the reasonable arguments, good intentions, and strong environmental interests on both sides.  After over an hour of discussion, and while agreeing with Measure E supporters that climate change is an open space issue with open space impacts, the Board unanimously voted that it opposes Measure E as unnecessarily impacting open space.  Instead of passing Measure E, CGF suggests a compromise with people primarily concerned with climate change, that we all work together to replace the sewage plant incinerator with a composting operation at the plant instead of at Byxbee, and that we also work together to get the funding to renovate Byxbee.  If Measure E fails, this is a way that both sides can work together.  The Board also noted its appreciation of Measure E supporters stating that they want a "no net loss" of parkland, so if Measure E passes, this is also something we could work together on in the future.

Committee for Green Foothills says "No, NO, a thousand times NO!!!" to Proposition 23

This is just a quick note that the Committee for Green Foothills' Board of Directors voted to oppose Proposition 23, and out-of-state funded proposition that would gut our efforts to fight climate change.  We'll have more about this problem in the near future, but wanted to make a note of it as soon as possible.

-Brian Schmidt

The Future of Freezing

Interesting website showing how drastically the decrease will be in the amount of land area below freezing over this century due to climate change.  You can adjust it to focus on California.  Currently it just shows February and March, but it gives an idea how much snowpack we'll lose in the Sierras, which will have a definite effect on water supplies in our area.  It also shows how the effect will be reduced if we take quick action to address climate change.

-Brian

Cal Attorney General Comments on why climate impacts must be addressed under CEQA

I thought I'd reference a letter that the California Department of Justice wrote to the City of San Jose two years ago, explaining that the City couldn't duck its responsibility under the California Environmental Quality Act to determine whether climate change impacts were significant. The letter remains a useful tool so I wanted to make it more widely available.

An excerpt:

While the City is correct that there are currently no regulatory thresholds for significance relating to global warming impacts, this does not relieve a lead agency of its statutory obligation under CEQA to determine whether or not a project’s impacts are significant. As the CEQA Guidelines note, “[a]n ironclad definition of significant effect is not always possible ....” In the future, there may well be “an approved plan or mitigation program which provides specific requirements that will avoid or substantially lessen the cumulative problem” of GHG emissions and global warming impacts, but until that time, lead agencies must rely only on their own “careful judgment ... based to the extent possible on scientific and factual data” in determining whether a project’s global warming-related impacts are significant.

Click here for the whole thing.

-Brian

(And note that pretty soon we should have well-established regulatory thresholds....)

Comments on Gilroy expansion SEIRs for Lucky Day, Gavilan, and Wren Investor proposals

The Committee for Green Foothills submitted comment letters below (click "Read More" to see the full letters) on proposed outward expansions of the City of Gilroy. There's no reason to do this, and the environmental documentation is inadequate.

The letters reference appendices that I haven't attached due to length, but I can send them to anyone who's interested.

-Brian


(Letter re Lucky Day DSEIR)
August 20, 2009

Stan Ketchum, Senior Planner
City of Gilroy Planning Division

Re: Lucky Day Urban Service Area Amendment (07-01) SCH#2009022046

Dear Stan:

The Committee for Green Foothills ("Committee") submits the following comments regarding the Lucky Day USA amendment ("Lucky Day Project" or "Project"). As an initial matter, we thank the City for the two-week extension of time to comment. We continue to believe, however, that more time would have been appropriate, at a minimum the 30-day extension we understand was requested by Santa Clara County. There is no pressing urgency for this or any other of the proposed USA amendment projects.

The Committee supports the position of SOS Gilroy and their counsel that the Draft SEIR for the Project ("DSEIR") does not comply with CEQA law and Guidelines. We support this position for the reasons stated in their letters and as further explained below.


I. The DSEIR fails to analyze adequately climate-change related impacts and mitigation associated with the Project

A. The DSEIR fails to consider effects of climate change on the Project and its residents and visitors.

We note as an initial matter that the DSEIR entirely fails to discuss how the Project, residents, and visitors could be affected by climate change relative to how the area and people could be affected by climate change under the unchanged baseline use of little to no occupancy. As stated in Association of Environmental Professionals' 2007 report, Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Global Climate Change in CEQA Documents:

CEQA Projects Affected by Climate Change Impacts

The effects that GCC may have on a specific project also need to be considered in CEQA reviews.
Care is needed to determine if there is a connection between a project’s location or character and the
potential for impacts on the project to occur that are caused by GCC. Mandating mitigation to lessen
the environmental impacts of climate change on a project-level analysis without clear disclosure of
the relationship between the project and the environmental impact would not comply with CEQA.
Section 21002.1 of the California Public Resources Code states, “the purpose of an environmental
impact report is to identify the significant effects on the environment of a project…” Without
establishing what those effects are for residents in the State of California, and the relative degree of
certainty of those effects, an adequate disclosure of GCC impacts on a project would not be realized.

The precise timing, nature, and magnitude of climate change impacts at specific locations is not
certain, although projections with wide confidence limits have been developed for some parameters
such as sea level rise and meteorology. However, effects of climate change specifically mentioned in
AB 32, such as rising sea levels, modified meteorology and flood hydrographs, and changes in
snowpack could be addressed in CEQA documents. How GCC may affect species ranges may also
be considered. CEQA documents should address whether projected changes in sea level,
meteorology, flooding, snow pack, and other identifiable consequences of GCC may create hazards
for or otherwise adversely affect a project. The degree of uncertainty should also be addressed.

Potential health effects from GCC may arise from temperature increases, climate-sensitive diseases,
extreme events, and air quality. There may be direct temperature effects through increases in average
temperature leading to more extreme heat waves and less extreme cold spells. Those living in
warmer climates are likely to experience more stress and heat-related problems (e.g., heat rash and
heat stroke). In addition, climate sensitive diseases (such as malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever, and
encephalitis) may increase, such as those spread by mosquitoes and other disease-carrying insects.

GCC-related meteorological changes and sea level rises are expected to lead to other adverse impacts.
Extreme events, such as flooding and hurricanes, can displace people and damage property and
agriculture. Drought in some areas may increase and snowpack may decrease, which would decrease
water and food availability. Rising sea levels would increase stress on levees and exacerbate storm
wave run-up and coastal erosion. GCC may also contribute to air quality problems from increased
frequency of smog and particulate air pollution (EPA 2006c).

Some agencies have begun to assess potential risks from climate change in various regions of the
State. The California Climate Change Center uses three IPCC climate change scenarios to assess
risks from climate change to California (CCCC 2006). The report indicates GCC could result in the
following changes in California: poor air quality; more severe heat; increased wildfires; shifting
vegetation; declining forest productivity; decreased spring snowpack; water shortages; a potential
reduction in hydropower; a loss in winter recreation; agricultural damages from heat, pests,
pathogens, and weeds; and rising sea levels resulting in shrinking beaches and increased coastal
floods (CCCC 2006).

The California Department of Water Resources published a report that describes the progress on
incorporating climate change into existing water resources planning and management tools and
methodologies (DWR 2006). While it does not focus on CEQA, the report does describe potential
impacts of climate change on California’s water resources. The California Coastal Commission
published a Discussion Draft titled Global Warming and the California Coastal Commission (CCC
2006), which recommends that the Commission address GCC because the Coastal Act protects
resources that are threatened by global warming.

It is hoped that a greater number of California agencies will assess climate change risks. Once
information is made available by State government agencies, it could be used to determine more
precisely to what extent a project is affected. Until then, environmental documents could make a
good faith effort to assess the potential effects of GCC on projects. In some cases, such as coastal
developments, an evaluation could be feasible, with recognized limitations related to uncertainties. In
other locations, specific impact analysis may not be feasible.

AEP Report at 16-17 (attached as Appendix A).

The fact that the AEP Report says analysis in some locations may not be feasible does not excuse the City here, because the DSEIR made no attempt to determine if specific impact analysis is feasible. Increased air temperatures and associated pollution from increased temperatures, as well as decreased water availability are foreseeable impacts on the project site and proposed residents that should be addressed, as well as the other potential impacts described above.

In fact, the DSEIR at page 2-25 actually cites some consequences of climate change for California as a whole, including: increase in temperature, reduced water supply from Sierra Nevada snowpack, and potential negative impact rise in sea level will have on surface water quality. While the DSEIR fails to analyze these impacts on the Project, they can foreseeably harm access to water. Both the golf course and residents will require a lot of water.


B. Refusing to make a CEQA significance determination on cumulative climate change impacts is unlawful.

As stated in the August 5, 2009 letter from Shute Mihaly & Weinberger LLP to the City ("SMW Letter"), it is unlawful for the City to refuse to make a determination as to whether a project's non-speculative impacts are significant. CEQA Guideline s. 15064(b) requires the City to exercise "careful judgment…based to the extent possible on scientific and factual data" while Guideline s. 15144 notes that the lead agency "must use its best efforts to find out and disclose all that it reasonably can."

As the (attached as Appendix B) June 19, 2007 letter from California Department of Justice to the City of San Jose ("DOJ Letter") states, "it is inappropriate for the City to find, as it did in the [Coyote Valley] DEIR, that it is excused from making a significance determination under CEQA." The DOJ Letter expressly applied CEQA Guideline s 15064(b) to the identical failure by San Jose to determine whether climate change impacts are significant:

While the City is correct that there are currently no regulatory thresholds for significance relating to global warming impacts, this does not relieve a lead agency of its statutory obligation under CEQA to determine whether or not a project’s impacts are significant. As the CEQA Guidelines note, “[a]n ironclad definition of significant effect is not always possible ....” In the future, there may well be “an approved plan or mitigation program which provides specific requirements that will avoid or substantially lessen the cumulative problem” of GHG emissions and global warming impacts, but until that time, lead agencies must rely only on their own “careful judgment ... based to the extent possible on scientific and factual data” in determining whether a project’s global warming-related impacts are significant.

DOJ Letter at 5-6 (internal citations omitted).

The failure in the DSEIR to exercise "careful judgment ... based to the extent possible on scientific and factual data" under Guideline s. 15064(b) match the case where the DOJ Letter indicated to San Jose regarding its (ultimately-withdrawn) DEIR that it was inappropriate in determining whether a project’s global warming-related impacts are significant.


1. Significance thresholds exist, yet the SEIR fails to exercise judgment to apply them.

While significance thresholds may not have been finalized, they indisputably exist, as acknowledged in the DSEIR. DSEIR at 2-17. Two thresholds that could be used and have been suggested are zero increase in emissions and 900 ton CO2 Equivalent. SMW Letter at 9. The DSEIR offers no evidence in support of its refusal to adopt a threshold, despite the substantial evidence by experts in the field that either of these thresholds would be appropriate. Id. This fails to comply with CEQA.

As stated by the Attorney General's office, California law AB 32, "the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, which set State targets to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, and to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, provide a relevant benchmark for determining significance." DOJ Letter at 7. Any impact of the project that reduces the likelihood of compliance with AB 32 justifies a determination of significance.

California currently is not trending towards compliance with AB 32, as seen on page 22 of the Inventory of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions ("California Inventory") cited in the DSEIR:


Any net increase in emissions resulting from the Project would move away from AB 32 compliance. We further note that Gilroy's increasing population indicates that Gilroy itself is also unlikely to be moving in the direction toward compliance with AB 32.


2. The DSEIR must make determinations of significance even in the absence of finalized thresholds created by other agencies.

As noted above, lead agencies must use their own determinations and judgment, backed by substantial evidence, to determine whether impacts are significant, and these commonly occur in situations where no significance thresholds have been created by other agencies. For example, a lead agency may need to determine whether removing a number of trees from a parcel in order to develop it is a significant impact, and whether the size, proximity, and visibility of a development make the visual impacts significant. In neither case can the lead agency rely on simple application of a regulatory threshold developed by expert agencies, yet significance determinations such as these are commonplace. Here, where draft thresholds and guidance from professionals and the State Attorney General are available, the City has even less excuse in its unlawful failure to apply a significance threshold.


3. Failure to make a significance determination is contrary to the purpose of CEQA and contrary to the purpose of exempting EIRs from speculative determinations.

The purpose of CEQA is to ensure the public and decision-makers are adequately informed when making decisions and that feasible mitigations are applied. Speculative determinations are not required under CEQA because from the nature of being speculative, they would not inform decisionmakers whether the project's benefits exceed its environmental costs. That is not the case here, where the DSEIR does not deny impacts but only refuses to draw conclusions about them. The DSEIR deprives the City and the public from the opportunity to determine whether the project should go forward, as well as unlawfully denying the protection under CEQA of requiring feasible mitigations that reduce significant impacts.


C. The DSEIR underestimates climate change impacts from the Project.

Not only does the DSEIR fail to properly apply a significance threshold to climate change impacts, it underestimates those impacts and fails to adequately measure and describe what in fact is a cumulatively significant impact. The DSEIR states its estimate of greenhouse gas ("GHG") emissions is "likely to be quite conservative". DSEIR at 2-30. This is both incorrect and contradicted by information on the same page of the DSEIR that acknowledges additional GHG sources that were not included in the calculations. Id.

While the DSEIR claims these other sources would be insubstantial, it provides no information to support it. To the contrary, it acknowledges that only 82% of California GHG emissions come from CO2 (id. at 2-26), and the DSEIR does not measure all CO2 emissions from the Project, but only those from transportation and electricity production. Emissions that were left out that could substantially increase the Project's impacts include:

• Construction, especially with cement, emits substantial amounts of CO2. California Inventory at 11. Construction emissions on site were not quantified.

• Nitrous oxide results from "soil management" in agricultural sectors. California Inventory at 10. Application of fertilizer can increase nitrous oxide. See http://www.epa.gov/nitrousoxide/sources.html. The Project's golf course and residential development will foreseeably result in significant in significant fertilizer use compared to present conditions. See, e.g., http://www.brodheadwatershed.org/drinkingwaterthreats.html ("Homeowners use four to eight times the amount of fertilizer and pesticides per acre than farms. Golf courses are another potential source of groundwater contamination from overuse of fertilizer and pesticides.")

• Landfill methane emissions from the project should be included, and the California Inventory notes this as an important issue with data expected available in 2008. California Inventory at iii.

• The Project will result in substantial increases in water usage. In addition to all other aspects of water impacts, the GHG emissions needed to provide the water from local and distant sources should be quantified.

• “The General Plan EIR identified that development consistent with the general plan would increase wastewater generation that would exceed the existing treatment and disposal capacity of the WWTP. DSEIR at 2-42. Feasibility and desirability wastewater system expansion, considering expected reduction in availability of water due to climate change, must be considered. Energy impacts from wastewater treatment and from expanding the wastewater infrastructure must also be included.


D. Feasible climate change mitigation measures were unlawfully excluded from the DSEIR.

Because this Project in fact has cumulatively significant climate change impacts, it should have required mitigation measures that are absent from the DSEIR. These include the following:

• Minimizing and/or adapting to climate change will require alterations to existing regional transportation system. Mobility will most likely include increased use of public transportation, carpooling, biking, and/or walking. The effect that expanding the developed land area within Gilroy will have on the feasibility of alternative transportation methods should be considered. The DSEIR does not adequately address the role of alternative transportation, nor does it analyze whether a feasible alternative exists by channeling development in existing City boundaries where alternative transportation is more likely to succeed.

• The statement that future development should be constructed to LEED or Build It Green standards "where feasible" (DSEIR at 2-31) has an exemption of "feasibility" that swallows the rule. If the mitigation is simply found "infeasible" then the project could have significant impacts without any finding of overriding circumstances required under CEQA.


II. The DSEIR underestimates or omits other significant impacts.

The DSEIR states that the General Plan EIR found that increased flooding, erosion, and siltation from the Project area and other development, absent mitigation, would be significant. DSEIR at 2-46. It said mitigation to contain runoff to predevelopment levels would reduce the impact to less than significant levels. Id. (referencing the General Plan EIR). The DSEIR says independently of the General Plan EIR that the "California Regional Water Quality Control Board will require future development to be designed to ensure that post-development runoff is contained to pre-development levels." Id. This is incorrect.

National Pollutant Discharge Elimination Systems (NPDES) permits under Water Quality Control Boards have not, in fact, required a match between pre- and post- development runoff, permit systems that have changed substantially since the General Plan EIR. See, e.g., Controlling Cumulative Impacts from Impervious Surfaces: Analysis and Recommendations for Santa Clara County (attached as Appendix C). Generally, they allow post-development hydrology to differ from pre-development for the effects of large storms, for situations where mitigation costs exceed a certain percentage of the cost of the project, and to completely differ from pre-development hydrology for any project smaller a certain maximum size. Id. The exact permit requirements for the Gilroy area should be examined, and they hydrological impacts including siltation, impacts on salmonids, etc., should also be examined in light of this new information that was missed by the DSEIR. The new information indicates the presence of unexamined impacts in violation of CEQA.


III. Conclusion.

The City of Gilroy cannot approve the Project based on this inadequate DSEIR, and we request that no further consideration of the Project be given to it.


Please contact us if you have any questions.

Sincerely,

Brian A. Schmidt, CGF Legislative Advocate
Shari Pomerantz, CGF Volunteer

Appendix A: Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Global Climate Change in CEQA Documents
Appendix B: June 19, 2007 letter from California Department of Justice to the City of San Jose ("DOJ Letter")
Appendix C: Controlling Cumulative Impacts from Impervious Surfaces: Analysis and Recommendations for Santa Clara County

-------------------------
(Letter re Gavilan DSEIR)

August 20, 2009

Stan Ketchum, Senior Planner
City of Gilroy Planning Division

Re: Gavilan Joint Community College District Urban Service Area Amendment (08-02) SCH#2009022045

Dear Stan:

The Committee for Green Foothills ("Committee") submits the following comments regarding the Gavilan USA amendment ("Gavilan Project" or "Project"). As an initial matter, we thank the City for the two-week extension of time to comment. We continue to believe, however, that more time would have been appropriate, at a minimum the 30-day extension we understand was requested by Santa Clara County. There is no pressing urgency for this or any other of the proposed USA amendment projects.

The Committee supports the position of SOS Gilroy and their counsel that the Draft SEIR for the Project ("DSEIR") does not comply with CEQA law and Guidelines. We support this position for the reasons stated in their letters and as further explained below.


I. The DSEIR fails to analyze adequately climate-change related impacts and mitigation associated with the Project

A. The DSEIR fails to consider effects of climate change on the Project and its residents and visitors.

We note as an initial matter that the DSEIR entirely fails to discuss how the Project, residents, and visitors could be affected by climate change relative to how the area and people could be affected by climate change under the unchanged baseline level of less-intense use than proposed. As stated in Association of Environmental Professionals' 2007 report, Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Global Climate Change in CEQA Documents:

CEQA Projects Affected by Climate Change Impacts

The effects that GCC may have on a specific project also need to be considered in CEQA reviews.
Care is needed to determine if there is a connection between a project’s location or character and the
potential for impacts on the project to occur that are caused by GCC. Mandating mitigation to lessen
the environmental impacts of climate change on a project-level analysis without clear disclosure of
the relationship between the project and the environmental impact would not comply with CEQA.
Section 21002.1 of the California Public Resources Code states, “the purpose of an environmental
impact report is to identify the significant effects on the environment of a project…” Without
establishing what those effects are for residents in the State of California, and the relative degree of
certainty of those effects, an adequate disclosure of GCC impacts on a project would not be realized.

The precise timing, nature, and magnitude of climate change impacts at specific locations is not
certain, although projections with wide confidence limits have been developed for some parameters
such as sea level rise and meteorology. However, effects of climate change specifically mentioned in
AB 32, such as rising sea levels, modified meteorology and flood hydrographs, and changes in
snowpack could be addressed in CEQA documents. How GCC may affect species ranges may also
be considered. CEQA documents should address whether projected changes in sea level,
meteorology, flooding, snow pack, and other identifiable consequences of GCC may create hazards
for or otherwise adversely affect a project. The degree of uncertainty should also be addressed.

Potential health effects from GCC may arise from temperature increases, climate-sensitive diseases,
extreme events, and air quality. There may be direct temperature effects through increases in average
temperature leading to more extreme heat waves and less extreme cold spells. Those living in
warmer climates are likely to experience more stress and heat-related problems (e.g., heat rash and
heat stroke). In addition, climate sensitive diseases (such as malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever, and
encephalitis) may increase, such as those spread by mosquitoes and other disease-carrying insects.

GCC-related meteorological changes and sea level rises are expected to lead to other adverse impacts.
Extreme events, such as flooding and hurricanes, can displace people and damage property and
agriculture. Drought in some areas may increase and snowpack may decrease, which would decrease
water and food availability. Rising sea levels would increase stress on levees and exacerbate storm
wave run-up and coastal erosion. GCC may also contribute to air quality problems from increased
frequency of smog and particulate air pollution (EPA 2006c).

Some agencies have begun to assess potential risks from climate change in various regions of the
State. The California Climate Change Center uses three IPCC climate change scenarios to assess
risks from climate change to California (CCCC 2006). The report indicates GCC could result in the
following changes in California: poor air quality; more severe heat; increased wildfires; shifting
vegetation; declining forest productivity; decreased spring snowpack; water shortages; a potential
reduction in hydropower; a loss in winter recreation; agricultural damages from heat, pests,
pathogens, and weeds; and rising sea levels resulting in shrinking beaches and increased coastal
floods (CCCC 2006).

The California Department of Water Resources published a report that describes the progress on
incorporating climate change into existing water resources planning and management tools and
methodologies (DWR 2006). While it does not focus on CEQA, the report does describe potential
impacts of climate change on California’s water resources. The California Coastal Commission
published a Discussion Draft titled Global Warming and the California Coastal Commission (CCC
2006), which recommends that the Commission address GCC because the Coastal Act protects
resources that are threatened by global warming.

It is hoped that a greater number of California agencies will assess climate change risks. Once
information is made available by State government agencies, it could be used to determine more
precisely to what extent a project is affected. Until then, environmental documents could make a
good faith effort to assess the potential effects of GCC on projects. In some cases, such as coastal
developments, an evaluation could be feasible, with recognized limitations related to uncertainties. In
other locations, specific impact analysis may not be feasible.

AEP Report at 16-17 (attached as Appendix A).

The fact that the AEP Report says analysis in some locations may not be feasible does not excuse the City here, because the DSEIR made no attempt to determine if specific impact analysis is feasible. Increased air temperatures and associated pollution from increased temperatures, as well as decreased water availability are foreseeable impacts on the project site and proposed residents that should be addressed, as well as the other potential impacts described above.

In fact, the DSEIR at page 2-10 actually cites some consequences of climate change for California as a whole, including: increase in temperature, reduced water supply from Sierra Nevada snowpack, and potential negative impact rise in sea level will have on surface water quality. While the DSEIR fails to analyze these impacts on the Project, they can foreseeably harm access to water.


B. Refusing to make a CEQA significance determination on cumulative climate change impacts is unlawful.

As stated in the August 5, 2009 letter from Shute Mihaly & Weinberger LLP to the City ("SMW Letter"), it is unlawful for the City to refuse to make a determination as to whether a project's non-speculative impacts are significant. CEQA Guideline s. 15064(b) requires the City to exercise "careful judgment…based to the extent possible on scientific and factual data" while Guideline s. 15144 notes that the lead agency "must use its best efforts to find out and disclose all that it reasonably can."

As the (attached as Appendix B) June 19, 2007 letter from California Department of Justice to the City of San Jose ("DOJ Letter") states, "it is inappropriate for the City to find, as it did in the [Coyote Valley] DEIR, that it is excused from making a significance determination under CEQA." The DOJ Letter expressly applied CEQA Guideline s 15064(b) to the identical failure by San Jose to determine whether climate change impacts are significant:

While the City is correct that there are currently no regulatory thresholds for significance relating to global warming impacts, this does not relieve a lead agency of its statutory obligation under CEQA to determine whether or not a project’s impacts are significant. As the CEQA Guidelines note, “[a]n ironclad definition of significant effect is not always possible ....” In the future, there may well be “an approved plan or mitigation program which provides specific requirements that will avoid or substantially lessen the cumulative problem” of GHG emissions and global warming impacts, but until that time, lead agencies must rely only on their own “careful judgment ... based to the extent possible on scientific and factual data” in determining whether a project’s global warming-related impacts are significant.

DOJ Letter at 5-6 (internal citations omitted).

The failure in the DSEIR to exercise "careful judgment ... based to the extent possible on scientific and factual data" under Guideline s. 15064(b) match the case where the DOJ Letter indicated to San Jose regarding its (ultimately-withdrawn) DEIR that it was inappropriate in determining whether a project’s global warming-related impacts are significant.


1. Significance thresholds exist, yet the SEIR fails to exercise judgment to apply them.

While significance thresholds may not have been finalized, they indisputably exist, as acknowledged in the DSEIR. DSEIR at 2-2. Two thresholds that could be used and have been suggested are zero increase in emissions and 900 ton CO2 Equivalent. SMW Letter at 9. The DSEIR offers no evidence in support of its refusal to adopt a threshold, despite the substantial evidence by experts in the field that either of these thresholds would be appropriate. Id. This fails to comply with CEQA.

As stated by the Attorney General's office, California law AB 32, "the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, which set State targets to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, and to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, provide a relevant benchmark for determining significance." DOJ Letter at 7. Any impact of the project that reduces the likelihood of compliance with AB 32 justifies a determination of significance.

California currently is not trending towards compliance with AB 32, as seen on page 22 of the Inventory of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions ("California Inventory") cited in the DSEIR:


Any net increase in emissions resulting from the Project would move away from AB 32 compliance. We further note that Gilroy's increasing population indicates that Gilroy itself is also unlikely to be moving in the direction toward compliance with AB 32.


2. The DSEIR must make determinations of significance even in the absence of finalized thresholds created by other agencies.

As noted above, lead agencies must use their own determinations and judgment, backed by substantial evidence, to determine whether impacts are significant, and these commonly occur in situations where no significance thresholds have been created by other agencies. For example, a lead agency may need to determine whether removing a number of trees from a parcel in order to develop it is a significant impact, and whether the size, proximity, and visibility of a development make the visual impacts significant. In neither case can the lead agency rely on simple application of a regulatory threshold developed by expert agencies, yet significance determinations such as these are commonplace. Here, where draft thresholds and guidance from professionals and the State Attorney General are available, the City has even less excuse in its unlawful failure to apply a significance threshold.


3. Failure to make a significance determination is contrary to the purpose of CEQA and contrary to the purpose of exempting EIRs from speculative determinations.

The purpose of CEQA is to ensure the public and decision-makers are adequately informed when making decisions and that feasible mitigations are applied. Speculative determinations are not required under CEQA because from the nature of being speculative, they would not inform decisionmakers whether the project's benefits exceed its environmental costs. That is not the case here, where the DSEIR does not deny impacts but only refuses to draw conclusions about them. The DSEIR deprives the City and the public from the opportunity to determine whether the project should go forward, as well as unlawfully denying the protection under CEQA of requiring feasible mitigations that reduce significant impacts.


C. The DSEIR underestimates climate change impacts from the Project.

Not only does the DSEIR fail to properly apply a significance threshold to climate change impacts, it underestimates those impacts and fails to adequately measure and describe what in fact is a cumulatively significant impact. The DSEIR states its estimate of greenhouse gas ("GHG") emissions is "likely to be quite conservative". DSEIR at 2-16. This is both incorrect and contradicted by information on the same page of the DSEIR that acknowledges additional GHG sources that were not included in the calculations. Id.

While the DSEIR claims these other sources would be insubstantial, it provides no information to support it. To the contrary, it acknowledges that only 82% of California GHG emissions come from CO2 (id. at 2-12), and the DSEIR does not measure all CO2 emissions from the Project, but only those from transportation and electricity production. Emissions that were left out that could substantially increase the Project's impacts include:

• Construction, especially with cement, emits substantial amounts of CO2. California Inventory at 11. Construction emissions on site were not quantified.

• Nitrous oxide results from "soil management" in agricultural sectors. California Inventory at 10. Application of fertilizer can increase nitrous oxide. See http://www.epa.gov/nitrousoxide/sources.html. The Project's golf course and residential development will foreseeably result in significant in significant fertilizer use compared to present conditions. See, e.g., http://www.brodheadwatershed.org/drinkingwaterthreats.html ("Homeowners use four to eight times the amount of fertilizer and pesticides per acre than farms. Golf courses are another potential source of groundwater contamination from overuse of fertilizer and pesticides.")

• Landfill methane emissions from the project should be included, and the California Inventory notes this as an important issue with data expected available in 2008. California Inventory at iii.

• The Project will result in substantial increases in water usage. In addition to all other aspects of water impacts, the GHG emissions needed to provide the water from local and distant sources should be quantified.

• “The General Plan EIR identified that development consistent with the general plan would increase wastewater generation that would exceed the existing treatment and disposal capacity of the WWTP. DSEIR at 2-28. Feasibility and desirability wastewater system expansion, considering expected reduction in availability of water due to climate change, must be considered. Energy impacts from wastewater treatment and from expanding the wastewater infrastructure must also be included.


D. Feasible climate change mitigation measures were unlawfully excluded from the DSEIR.

Because this Project in fact has cumulatively significant climate change impacts, it should have required mitigation measures that are absent from the DSEIR. These include the following:

• Minimizing and/or adapting to climate change will require alterations to existing regional transportation system. Mobility will most likely include increased use of public transportation, carpooling, biking, and/or walking. The effect that expanding the developed land area within Gilroy will have on the feasibility of alternative transportation methods should be considered. The DSEIR does not adequately address the role of alternative transportation, nor does it analyze whether a feasible alternative exists by channeling development in existing City boundaries where alternative transportation is more likely to succeed.

• The statement that future development should be constructed to LEED or Build It Green standards "where feasible" (DSEIR at 2-18) has an exemption of "feasibility" that swallows the rule. If the mitigation is simply found "infeasible" then the project could have significant impacts without any finding of overriding circumstances required under CEQA.


II. The DSEIR underestimates or omits other significant impacts.

The DSEIR states that the General Plan EIR found that increased flooding, erosion, and siltation from the Project area and other development, absent mitigation, would be significant. DSEIR at 2-31 to 2-32. It said mitigation to contain runoff to predevelopment levels would reduce the impact to less than significant levels. Id. (referencing the General Plan EIR). The DSEIR says independently of the General Plan EIR that the "California Regional Water Quality Control Board will require future development to be designed to ensure that post-development runoff is contained to pre-development levels." Id. This is incorrect.

National Pollutant Discharge Elimination Systems (NPDES) permits under Water Quality Control Boards have not, in fact, required a match between pre- and post- development runoff, permit systems that have changed substantially since the General Plan EIR. See, e.g., Controlling Cumulative Impacts from Impervious Surfaces: Analysis and Recommendations for Santa Clara County (attached as Appendix C). Generally, they allow post-development hydrology to differ from pre-development for the effects of large storms, for situations where mitigation costs exceed a certain percentage of the cost of the project, and to completely differ from pre-development hydrology for any project smaller a certain maximum size. Id. The exact permit requirements for the Gilroy area should be examined, and they hydrological impacts including siltation, impacts on salmonids, etc., should also be examined in light of this new information that was missed by the DSEIR. The new information indicates the presence of unexamined impacts in violation of CEQA.


III. Conclusion.

The City of Gilroy cannot approve the Project based on this inadequate DSEIR, and we request that no further consideration of the Project be given to it.

Please contact us if you have any questions.

Sincerely,

Brian A. Schmidt, CGF Legislative Advocate
Shari Pomerantz, CGF Volunteer

Appendix A: Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Global Climate Change in CEQA Documents
Appendix B: June 19, 2007 letter from California Department of Justice to the City of San Jose ("DOJ Letter")
Appendix C: Controlling Cumulative Impacts from Impervious Surfaces: Analysis and Recommendations for Santa Clara County

-----------------
(Letter re Wren Investors DSEIR)

August 20, 2009

Stan Ketchum, Senior Planner
City of Gilroy Planning Division

Re: Wren Investors Urban Service Area Amendment (00-02) SCH#99072074

Dear Stan:

The Committee for Green Foothills ("Committee") submits the following comments regarding the Wren USA amendment ("Wren Project" or "Project"). As an initial matter, we thank the City for the two-week extension of time to comment. We continue to believe, however, that more time would have been appropriate, at a minimum the 30-day extension we understand was requested by Santa Clara County. There is no pressing urgency for this or any other of the proposed USA amendment projects.

The Committee supports the position of SOS Gilroy and their counsel that the Draft SEIR for the Project ("DSEIR") does not comply with CEQA law and Guidelines. We support this position for the reasons stated in their letters and as further explained below.


I. The DSEIR fails to analyze adequately climate-change related impacts and mitigation associated with the Project

A. The DSEIR fails to consider effects of climate change on the Project and its residents and visitors.

We note as an initial matter that the DSEIR entirely fails to discuss how the Project, residents, and visitors could be affected by climate change relative to how the area and people could be affected by climate change under the unchanged baseline use of low levels of development. As stated in Association of Environmental Professionals' 2007 report, Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Global Climate Change in CEQA Documents:

CEQA Projects Affected by Climate Change Impacts

The effects that GCC may have on a specific project also need to be considered in CEQA reviews.
Care is needed to determine if there is a connection between a project’s location or character and the
potential for impacts on the project to occur that are caused by GCC. Mandating mitigation to lessen
the environmental impacts of climate change on a project-level analysis without clear disclosure of
the relationship between the project and the environmental impact would not comply with CEQA.
Section 21002.1 of the California Public Resources Code states, “the purpose of an environmental
impact report is to identify the significant effects on the environment of a project…” Without
establishing what those effects are for residents in the State of California, and the relative degree of
certainty of those effects, an adequate disclosure of GCC impacts on a project would not be realized.

The precise timing, nature, and magnitude of climate change impacts at specific locations is not
certain, although projections with wide confidence limits have been developed for some parameters
such as sea level rise and meteorology. However, effects of climate change specifically mentioned in
AB 32, such as rising sea levels, modified meteorology and flood hydrographs, and changes in
snowpack could be addressed in CEQA documents. How GCC may affect species ranges may also
be considered. CEQA documents should address whether projected changes in sea level,
meteorology, flooding, snow pack, and other identifiable consequences of GCC may create hazards
for or otherwise adversely affect a project. The degree of uncertainty should also be addressed.

Potential health effects from GCC may arise from temperature increases, climate-sensitive diseases,
extreme events, and air quality. There may be direct temperature effects through increases in average
temperature leading to more extreme heat waves and less extreme cold spells. Those living in
warmer climates are likely to experience more stress and heat-related problems (e.g., heat rash and
heat stroke). In addition, climate sensitive diseases (such as malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever, and
encephalitis) may increase, such as those spread by mosquitoes and other disease-carrying insects.

GCC-related meteorological changes and sea level rises are expected to lead to other adverse impacts.
Extreme events, such as flooding and hurricanes, can displace people and damage property and
agriculture. Drought in some areas may increase and snowpack may decrease, which would decrease
water and food availability. Rising sea levels would increase stress on levees and exacerbate storm
wave run-up and coastal erosion. GCC may also contribute to air quality problems from increased
frequency of smog and particulate air pollution (EPA 2006c).

Some agencies have begun to assess potential risks from climate change in various regions of the
State. The California Climate Change Center uses three IPCC climate change scenarios to assess
risks from climate change to California (CCCC 2006). The report indicates GCC could result in the
following changes in California: poor air quality; more severe heat; increased wildfires; shifting
vegetation; declining forest productivity; decreased spring snowpack; water shortages; a potential
reduction in hydropower; a loss in winter recreation; agricultural damages from heat, pests,
pathogens, and weeds; and rising sea levels resulting in shrinking beaches and increased coastal
floods (CCCC 2006).

The California Department of Water Resources published a report that describes the progress on
incorporating climate change into existing water resources planning and management tools and
methodologies (DWR 2006). While it does not focus on CEQA, the report does describe potential
impacts of climate change on California’s water resources. The California Coastal Commission
published a Discussion Draft titled Global Warming and the California Coastal Commission (CCC
2006), which recommends that the Commission address GCC because the Coastal Act protects
resources that are threatened by global warming.

It is hoped that a greater number of California agencies will assess climate change risks. Once
information is made available by State government agencies, it could be used to determine more
precisely to what extent a project is affected. Until then, environmental documents could make a
good faith effort to assess the potential effects of GCC on projects. In some cases, such as coastal
developments, an evaluation could be feasible, with recognized limitations related to uncertainties. In
other locations, specific impact analysis may not be feasible.

AEP Report at 16-17 (attached as Appendix A).

The fact that the AEP Report says analysis in some locations may not be feasible does not excuse the City here, because the DSEIR made no attempt to determine if specific impact analysis is feasible. Increased air temperatures and associated pollution from increased temperatures, as well as decreased water availability are foreseeable impacts on the project site and proposed residents that should be addressed, as well as the other potential impacts described above.

In fact, the DSEIR at page 2-20 actually cites some consequences of climate change for California as a whole, including: increase in temperature, reduced water supply from Sierra Nevada snowpack, and potential negative impact rise in sea level will have on surface water quality. While the DSEIR fails to analyze these impacts on the Project, they can foreseeably harm access to water.


B. Refusing to make a CEQA significance determination on cumulative climate change impacts is unlawful.

As stated in the August 5, 2009 letter from Shute Mihaly & Weinberger LLP to the City ("SMW Letter"), it is unlawful for the City to refuse to make a determination as to whether a project's non-speculative impacts are significant. CEQA Guideline s. 15064(b) requires the City to exercise "careful judgment…based to the extent possible on scientific and factual data" while Guideline s. 15144 notes that the lead agency "must use its best efforts to find out and disclose all that it reasonably can."

As the (attached as Appendix B) June 19, 2007 letter from California Department of Justice to the City of San Jose ("DOJ Letter") states, "it is inappropriate for the City to find, as it did in the [Coyote Valley] DEIR, that it is excused from making a significance determination under CEQA." The DOJ Letter expressly applied CEQA Guideline s 15064(b) to the identical failure by San Jose to determine whether climate change impacts are significant:

While the City is correct that there are currently no regulatory thresholds for significance relating to global warming impacts, this does not relieve a lead agency of its statutory obligation under CEQA to determine whether or not a project’s impacts are significant. As the CEQA Guidelines note, “[a]n ironclad definition of significant effect is not always possible ....” In the future, there may well be “an approved plan or mitigation program which provides specific requirements that will avoid or substantially lessen the cumulative problem” of GHG emissions and global warming impacts, but until that time, lead agencies must rely only on their own “careful judgment ... based to the extent possible on scientific and factual data” in determining whether a project’s global warming-related impacts are significant.

DOJ Letter at 5-6 (internal citations omitted).

The failure in the DSEIR to exercise "careful judgment ... based to the extent possible on scientific and factual data" under Guideline s. 15064(b) match the case where the DOJ Letter indicated to San Jose regarding its (ultimately-withdrawn) DEIR that it was inappropriate in determining whether a project’s global warming-related impacts are significant.


1. Significance thresholds exist, yet the SEIR fails to exercise judgment to apply them.

While significance thresholds may not have been finalized, they indisputably exist, as acknowledged in the DSEIR. DSEIR at 2-12. Two thresholds that could be used and have been suggested are zero increase in emissions and 900 ton CO2 Equivalent. SMW Letter at 8. The DSEIR offers no evidence in support of its refusal to adopt a threshold, despite the substantial evidence by experts in the field that either of these thresholds would be appropriate. Id. This fails to comply with CEQA.

As stated by the Attorney General's office, California law AB 32, "the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, which set State targets to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, and to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, provide a relevant benchmark for determining significance." DOJ Letter at 7. Any impact of the project that reduces the likelihood of compliance with AB 32 justifies a determination of significance.

California currently is not trending towards compliance with AB 32, as seen on page 22 of the Inventory of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions ("California Inventory") cited in the DSEIR:


Any net increase in emissions resulting from the Project would move away from AB 32 compliance. We further note that Gilroy's increasing population indicates that Gilroy itself is also unlikely to be moving in the direction toward compliance with AB 32.


2. The DSEIR must make determinations of significance even in the absence of finalized thresholds created by other agencies.

As noted above, lead agencies must use their own determinations and judgment, backed by substantial evidence, to determine whether impacts are significant, and these commonly occur in situations where no significance thresholds have been created by other agencies. For example, a lead agency may need to determine whether removing a number of trees from a parcel in order to develop it is a significant impact, and whether the size, proximity, and visibility of a development make the visual impacts significant. In neither case can the lead agency rely on simple application of a regulatory threshold developed by expert agencies, yet significance determinations such as these are commonplace. Here, where draft thresholds and guidance from professionals and the State Attorney General are available, the City has even less excuse in its unlawful failure to apply a significance threshold.


3. Failure to make a significance determination is contrary to the purpose of CEQA and contrary to the purpose of exempting EIRs from speculative determinations.

The purpose of CEQA is to ensure the public and decision-makers are adequately informed when making decisions and that feasible mitigations are applied. Speculative determinations are not required under CEQA because from the nature of being speculative, they would not inform decisionmakers whether the project's benefits exceed its environmental costs. That is not the case here, where the DSEIR does not deny impacts but only refuses to draw conclusions about them. The DSEIR deprives the City and the public from the opportunity to determine whether the project should go forward, as well as unlawfully denying the protection under CEQA of requiring feasible mitigations that reduce significant impacts.


C. The DSEIR underestimates climate change impacts from the Project.

Not only does the DSEIR fail to properly apply a significance threshold to climate change impacts, it underestimates those impacts and fails to adequately measure and describe what in fact is a cumulatively significant impact. The DSEIR states its estimate of greenhouse gas ("GHG") emissions is "likely to be quite conservative". DSEIR at 2-25 to 2-26. This is both incorrect and contradicted by information on the same page of the DSEIR that acknowledges additional GHG sources that were not included in the calculations. Id.

While the DSEIR claims these other sources would be insubstantial, it provides no information to support it. To the contrary, it acknowledges that only 82% of California GHG emissions come from CO2 (id. at 2-22), and the DSEIR does not measure all CO2 emissions from the Project, but only those from transportation and electricity production. Emissions that were left out that could substantially increase the Project's impacts include:

• Construction, especially with cement, emits substantial amounts of CO2. California Inventory at 11. Construction emissions on site were not quantified.

• Nitrous oxide results from "soil management" in agricultural sectors. California Inventory at 10. Application of fertilizer can increase nitrous oxide. See http://www.epa.gov/nitrousoxide/sources.html. The Project's golf course and residential development will foreseeably result in significant in significant fertilizer use compared to present conditions. See, e.g., http://www.brodheadwatershed.org/drinkingwaterthreats.html ("Homeowners use four to eight times the amount of fertilizer and pesticides per acre than farms. Golf courses are another potential source of groundwater contamination from overuse of fertilizer and pesticides.")

• Landfill methane emissions from the project should be included, and the California Inventory notes this as an important issue with data expected available in 2008. California Inventory at iii.

• The Project will result in substantial increases in water usage. In addition to all other aspects of water impacts, the GHG emissions needed to provide the water from local and distant sources should be quantified.

• “The General Plan EIR identified that development consistent with the general plan would increase wastewater generation that would exceed the existing treatment and disposal capacity of the WWTP. DSEIR at 2-38. Feasibility and desirability wastewater system expansion, considering expected reduction in availability of water due to climate change, must be considered. Energy impacts from wastewater treatment and from expanding the wastewater infrastructure must also be included.


D. Feasible climate change mitigation measures were unlawfully excluded from the DSEIR.

Because this Project in fact has cumulatively significant climate change impacts, it should have required mitigation measures that are absent from the DSEIR. These include the following:

• Minimizing and/or adapting to climate change will require alterations to existing regional transportation system. Mobility will most likely include increased use of public transportation, carpooling, biking, and/or walking. The effect that expanding the developed land area within Gilroy will have on the feasibility of alternative transportation methods should be considered. The DSEIR does not adequately address the role of alternative transportation, nor does it analyze whether a feasible alternative exists by channeling development in existing City boundaries where alternative transportation is more likely to succeed.

• The statement that future development should be constructed to LEED or Build It Green standards "where feasible" (DSEIR at 2-27) has an exemption of "feasibility" that swallows the rule. If the mitigation is simply found "infeasible" then the project could have significant impacts without any finding of overriding circumstances required under CEQA.


II. The DSEIR underestimates or omits other significant impacts.

The DSEIR states that the General Plan EIR found that increased flooding, erosion, and siltation from the Project area and other development, absent mitigation, would be significant. DSEIR at 2-42. It said mitigation to contain runoff to predevelopment levels would reduce the impact to less than significant levels. Id. (referencing the General Plan EIR). The DSEIR says independently of the General Plan EIR that the "California Regional Water Quality Control Board will require future development to be designed to ensure that post-development runoff is contained to pre-development levels." Id. This is incorrect.

National Pollutant Discharge Elimination Systems (NPDES) permits under Water Quality Control Boards have not, in fact, required a match between pre- and post- development runoff, permit systems that have changed substantially since the General Plan EIR. See, e.g., Controlling Cumulative Impacts from Impervious Surfaces: Analysis and Recommendations for Santa Clara County (attached as Appendix C). Generally, they allow post-development hydrology to differ from pre-development for the effects of large storms, for situations where mitigation costs exceed a certain percentage of the cost of the project, and to completely differ from pre-development hydrology for any project smaller a certain maximum size. Id. The exact permit requirements for the Gilroy area should be examined, and they hydrological impacts including siltation, impacts on salmonids, etc., should also be examined in light of this new information that was missed by the DSEIR. The new information indicates the presence of unexamined impacts in violation of CEQA.


III. Conclusion.

The City of Gilroy cannot approve the Project based on this inadequate DSEIR, and we request that no further consideration of the Project be given to it.

Please contact us if you have any questions.

Sincerely,

Brian A. Schmidt, CGF Legislative Advocate
Shari Pomerantz, CGF Volunteer

Appendix A: Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Global Climate Change in CEQA Documents
Appendix B: June 19, 2007 letter from California Department of Justice to the City of San Jose ("DOJ Letter")
Appendix C: Controlling Cumulative Impacts from Impervious Surfaces: Analysis and Recommendations for Santa Clara County

Ocean acidification off the Northern California Coast

Ocean acidification is a terrible and under-appreciated aspect of climate change, a result of carbon dioxide emissions changing ocean chemistry. The Acid Test documentary linked above discusses how this problem has affected coastal life in our areas, as seashells start to dissolve in the acidifying ocean. It aired yesterday and will re-air later in the month.

-Brian

Tackling the rise in SF Bay levels

Climate change-induced sea level rise will have a similar effect on San Francisco Bay, leaving planners, taxpayers, and environmentalists with a difficult problem in how to manage the rising Bay. The Chronicle covers some interesting and highly speculative ideas entered in a recent contest:

Once they would have been the stuff of science fiction: shimmering levees of
water that shield cities, or laser beams slicing across water through the
night.

In fact, these are two of six winners announced Tuesday in a
design competition that responds to a real-life threat - scientific projections
that in the century to come, the sea level of San Francisco Bay could climb 55
inches beyond today's high tide.
"We need to rethink how we build along the
shoreline, but we didn't have the answers," said Will Travis, executive director
of the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission, which
organized the competition. "So we decided to cast the net for ideas."

The ideas can be seen here. I skimmed through a few, and any solution is going to be expensive. This is something that both San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties are going to have to deal with, soon.

It would be interesting to see how much could be saved if aggressive action on climate cut the Bay level increase in half.

-Brian

Climate changing from rain to snow with some measurable flooding impacts

We had flood warnings over the weekend that didn't amount to much, fortunately. Yesterday the weather cleared enough to show the Mount Hamilton Range covered in snow, which helps a great deal. The higher-altitude precipitation comes down as snow instead of rain during storm events and melts slowly over a period of days, instead of surging down in a few hours with all the other rain.

That's how it's happened in the past and today, but will be less true in the future due to climate change. While more intense storms and flooding are a possible consequence of warming due to changed weather patterns, that effect is hard to quantify. Changing from snow to rain, however, isn't so hard to make some rough calculations.

The saturated adiabatic lapse rate is just under 5 degrees Celsius per 1000 meters. The standard prediction from the latest International Panel on Climate Change for warming in the next few decades is .2 degrees Celsius per decade. Putting the two figures together means that after ten years, the snow line in a typical storm would be 40 meters higher than today, or 80 meters higher after 20 years (about 130 and 260 feet, respectively). While that may not sound like a lot, it could potentially turn a great deal of snowfall into rain, and it's only going to get worse.

While this is far from the most serious climate change impact, it's fairly quantifiable. The question is whether land use agencies will take this under consideration in their new responsibilities to prepare for flooding.

-Brian

UPDATE: See page 2 to see a graph of California temperatures. It's in Fahrenheit, but looks like roughly .5 degrees/decade, or about the same as the IPCC global prediction in Celsius.

Congestion pricing for San Francisco? San Jose?

San Francisco is considering a congestion charge for traffic entering San Francisco during certain hours, similar to what London has done for a number of years. (Noone's talking about San Jose, yet.)

The effects on our work of protecting open space from sprawl would likely be mixed. On the positive side, the charge would increase incentives to live in the city or near to public transit, which would reduce sprawl. On the other hand, one of our major problems with sprawl is from monster mansion developers, who could probably care less about the charge's cost but appreciate the reduced traffic.

Overall, I suspect the pros outweigh the cons for open space, and strongly outweigh the cons on climate change issues. We haven't looked at the issue closely though, but may need to in the near future.

-Brian

CGF and Climate Change

We occasionally get asked about how our work relates to fighting climate change. I'm recopying below a short email response I wrote on this subject:

The main thing is that we fight sprawl, the car-use-maximizing, environment-destroying driver of climate change.

We've written about climate change here:

http://search.atomz.com/search/?sp-q=%22global+warming%22+&B1.x=0&B1.y=0&sp-a=sp1002afb3&sp-p=all&sp-f=ISO-8859-1

We've submitted critical environmental comments on bad projects that point out the climate change effects. We've opposed many logging projects which have climate change impacts. We've supported natural flood plain protection as opposed to dams, pumping, and still more streamside development. We've supported initiatives that reduce house sizes, which waste energy.

And we've proven that environmentalists can win victories, just as the environmental values will win and stop climate change.

-Brian

Some good legal news in California about global warming, air pollution, and maybe about buying local food

Both of these news items are via Warming Law, a blog focusing on legal issues related to climate change.

California Attorney General Jerry Brown has settled a CEQA/global warming lawsuit against San Bernardino County (settlement here). This is relevant to Coyote Valley, where the EIR used the same legal theory as San Bernardino to avoid reaching a conclusion about global warming:

D. It is the County’s position that the General Plan EIR, after providing substantial disclosure and analysis of greenhouse gas emission and climate change issues, and including a factual and reasoned determination, appropriately concluded that there is no available methodology for determining whether greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the General Plan Update are significant. Accordingly, it is the County’s position that the County correctly determined, based on substantial evidence, that further discussion in the General Plan EIR of greenhouse gas emissions and climate change would be speculative;

(Settlement, page 1.)

The heart of the settlement is here:

A target for the reduction of those sources of emissions reasonably attributable to the County’s discretionary land use decisions and the County’s internal government operations, and feasible Greenhouse Gas emission reduction measures whose purpose shall be to meet this reduction target by regulating those sources of Greenhouse Gases emissions reasonably attributable to the County’s discretionary land use decisions and the County’s internal government operations.

(Page 3.)

Basically, the settlement ducks the issue of whether the emissions are significant (what the county wanted) in return for promising "feasible" reductions (what the California AG wanted). A lawsuit by environmental groups is still in place though, so this may not be the final word.

Warming Law also notes a separate statement in the newspaper, "In a compromise Tuesday, lawmakers agreed that by 2010, new rules would be adopted spelling out how to mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions of projects covered by the law." It's unclear what this means, but probably is a promise by the AG's office to issue new regulations under CEQA Guidelines. These regulations can interpret but cannot weaken the underlying CEQA statute. If it's proposed legislation though, then anything is possible, good or bad.


The second development is a federal appellate court case saying Air Management Districts can order local governments to purchase clean fuel vehicles. Besides helping fight climate change and air pollution, this clears away a legal hurdle for a "buy local food" idea we've discussed at CGF - that local governments should preferentially buy locally-grown food. The same preemption arguments that the oil industry was using against the clean fuel vehicle policy could have been used against a "buy local" policy, but this decision seems to remove that barrier entirely.

Trivia note: I did a tiny amount of work on this case on behalf the air district, six years ago. These cases can take a long time....

-Brian

Arctic warming affecting California coastal ecology

Via Grist, a disturbing story about the gray whales that migrate through the San Mateo County coastal area: pronounced warming means there's not enough food in the Arctic zones to support the migration, so whales are switching to different food items and staying in different areas. California may have some more resident whales, but a less dependable migration, and fewer baby whales seems likely to result in a smaller population overall. The overall result on our coastal ecology and the whale-watching economy isn't clear yet.

-Brian